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Prediction for CME (2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-11T21:28Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10195/-1
CME Note: C8.9 flare originating from AR 12496/97 complex (with peak at 21:03), eruption from near the polarity inversion line between the 2 ARs, wave going to the north and west, AIA 304 shows dark absorption material being ejected, nice post-eruptive loops in AIA 193, CME is partial halo seen in LASCO and STA.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-15T05:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-14T18:37Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2016-02-11 21:28
Source Longtitude: 11
Source Latitude:  11
Initial Shock Speed:  450 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed:  350 km/s
Duration Time: 1.75 hrs

Output results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-02-14 18:36:31

Lead Time: 58.60 hour(s)
Difference: 10.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2016-02-12T18:39Z

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